The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd (NIWA) has been the subject of many questions to both the Minister for Climate Change Issues and the Minister in the chair right now, Wayne Mapp, over the last 7 or 8 months.
NIWA is responsible for maintaining our climate records, having taken over this function from the Meteorological Service of New Zealand in 1992. In the early to mid 2000s NIWA produced a graph showing that New Zealand was warming even faster than global averages. This new temperature series, which was based on only seven measuring sites throughout New Zealand, showed that the warming trend in New Zealand was 0.9 of a degree centigrade per century.
The New Zealand Climate Conservation Group and the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition combined to investigate the New Zealand temperature record. They started with the official graph and the raw temperature readings, both published on NIWA’s website, and they found that there were big differences between them. The raw data, which is simply the data of the temperatures recorded over the last 150 years, showed no trend whatsoever—no warming. It was only the adjusted data that showed the 0.9 degree warming. There was no explanation of the differences on NIWA’s website.
Most of us will know that there are very many good reasons to adjust data. There may be gaps in the series, the site for temperature readings may have shifted, or there may have been a change in the environment, such as tarsealed car-parks, or a change over time from rural land to urban land. There can be valid reasons for making adjustments, and the technical term for these adjustments is referred to as a schedule of adjustments. It is quite normal to have a schedule of adjustments and, in fact, it is essential to have a schedule of adjustments because it helps us to keep track of the reasoning behind those adjustments and it allows other scientists to cross-check the work that has been done.
But this is where it gets interesting. When NIWA was asked to produce the schedule of adjustments, it became very evasive. When it answered requests, it talked about the standard reason for making adjustments and it referred to numerous papers and methodologies for doing so over the last 20 or 30 years. But NIWA refused to provide that schedule of adjustments to the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition when it asked for it, just over 12 months ago. At that stage the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition and the New Zealand Climate Conservation Group approached the ACT Party seeking assistance. We asked questions of the Minister for Climate Change Issues and also the Minister of Research, Science and Technology. We tried oral questions in Parliament, and we received evasive answers. We tried written questions, and again there was evasion. We asked ourselves what they were trying to hide. All we wanted was a schedule of adjustments for the official climate series, so that scientists, not politicians or political parties, could check the analysis. All we wanted was some basic science.
As scientists, NIWA should have welcomed the scrutiny of its data and its methods. Instead, it blocked us at every step. It eventually became clear that NIWA simply did not have a well-organised database with an accessible, up-to-date, or defensible schedule of adjustments. It also became clear that NIWA was in breach of its statutory obligations under the Public Records Act.
What we know is that the raw data showed no warming in New Zealand whatsoever. I see the Minister of Research, Science and Technology is nodding his head.
Hon Dr Wayne Mapp: No; shaking my head.
JOHN BOSCAWEN: I wonder whether the Minister is aware that the temperature records of the New Zealand Institute, which are maintained by the Auckland Museum, showed a temperature of 55.4 degrees Fahrenheit in 1868, which is 12.9 degrees Celsius. A century later the same record shows 12.7 degrees Celsius. In essence, there is no warming. One may ask why this is important. It is important because in 2 days’ time New Zealand will join the expensive experiment that is the emissions trading scheme.